Kuo’s critique hinges on a simple idea: Apple Intelligence isn’t compelling enough to push users to replace their older iPhones. He’s been skeptical since last summer, when he first suggested the market was overly optimistic about the AI’s ability to boost shipments. Now, with key features like an upgraded Siri delayed, he’s doubling down. “The market has recently adopted a more cautious view of Apple Intelligence,” Kuo wrote, pointing to setbacks like the postponed Siri overhaul as evidence of trouble brewing.
A Rocky Rollout
Apple Intelligence debuted partially with iOS 18.1 in October 2024, promising generative AI tools to enhance everything from text editing to photo cleanup. But the rollout has been bumpy. Features showcased at WWDC 2024—like a context-aware Siri that could handle complex tasks—remain missing in action. Apple recently confirmed that Siri’s personal context and in-app actions won’t arrive until later this year, a delay that’s frustrated users and fueled negative buzz. Morgan Stanley even trimmed its Apple stock expectations, citing Siri’s stalled progress, according to AppleInsider.
Kuo suggests Apple saw this coming. He claims the company baked the AI’s “underwhelming performance” into conservative shipment forecasts shared with suppliers earlier this year. If true, it’s a rare admission of tempered expectations from a brand known for bold bets. The iPhone 16 series, launched last fall, leaned heavily on Apple Intelligence as a selling point, but with the full suite still incomplete, its appeal may be waning.
Why It Matters to Users
For the average iPhone owner, Apple Intelligence was pitched as a game-changer—think smarter notifications or a Siri that finally gets you. But if it’s not delivering, why upgrade? Most users stick with their phones for three years or more, and the iPhone 15’s A16 chip still handles daily tasks with ease. Add in the fact that Apple Intelligence requires newer hardware—like the A17 Pro or later—and older models are locked out entirely. For many, the juice might not be worth the squeeze.
The stakes are higher in markets like China, where Huawei’s HarmonyOS and AI-driven flagships are gaining ground. Apple CEO Tim Cook noted in January that iPhone 16 sales spiked where Apple Intelligence was available, hinting at its potential. But with the AI suite still half-baked, that momentum could stall. Competitors aren’t standing still—Samsung’s Galaxy S25, due later this year, promises its own AI tricks, per TechCrunch reports.
A Deeper Dive into the Problem
What’s holding Apple Intelligence back? The Siri delay is a big piece. Advertised as a leap forward, the assistant’s upgrades were meant to rival Google’s Gemini or OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Instead, users got a stripped-down version, with core features pushed to iOS 18.4 or beyond. That gap between hype and reality has sparked criticism—even longtime Apple watcher John Gruber recently called out the company’s AI stumbles, a sentiment echoing across X.
Hardware isn’t the issue. The iPhone 16’s A18 chip, built on TSMC’s 3nm process, has power to spare—Reuters notes TSMC’s U.S. plants are ramping up supply. The bottleneck seems to be software execution. Apple’s cautious approach to AI, prioritizing privacy over speed, may have slowed development. While that’s a win for security-conscious users, it’s left the company playing catch-up in a race where speed often trumps polish.
What’s Next for Apple?
Kuo predicts the fallout could hit iPhone 16 and iPhone 17 sales through 2025. Apple’s next move might hinge on iOS 18.4, expected in April, which could finally deliver the promised Siri upgrades. If it flops, the iPhone 17—due this fall—might lean on hardware perks like a slimmer design or better cameras to lure buyers. The rumored iPhone SE 4, set for early 2025, could also shake things up with Apple Intelligence support at a lower price.
For now, Apple’s in a bind. The company thrives on seamless integration, but a half-finished AI suite risks breaking that spell. Kuo’s not alone in his caution—market sentiment is shifting, and Wall Street’s watching. Still, Apple’s got a knack for turning stumbles into strides. The question is whether it can pull it off before the competition steals the spotlight.
