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New anaylsis claims the iPhone 8 won’t generate as many sales as the iPhone 6

While most analysts speculate that the iPhone 8 could generate the biggest ever sales for Apple, Deutsche Bank is less than convinced.  They see this as overly optimistic and believe the sales for the new iPhone won’t even compete on the same level as the sales of the iPhone 6.

Will Apple’s domination continue?

This analysis comes days after Wall Street analyst Brian White claimed Apple was “among the most underappreciated stocks in the world.” He went on to say that if the iPhone 8 sales reached their expected level, Apple would become a trillion dollar company over the next 12 months.

Apple’s current market capitalization is estimated at around $737 billion.  With a stock price of $192-195, they will be on their way to becoming a trillion dollar company.

Conflicting analysis

While MacRumors see the iPhone 8 as able to trigger a ‘supercycle’ of record sales for Apple, Deutsche Bank does not agree.  According to their analysis, the sales for the new phone will fall short of those achieved by the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus.  They believe Wall Street’s predictions are simply unachievable.

Why could the iPhone 8’s sales be lower?

Deutsche Bank’s analyst note, seen by Business Insider, claimed that the record sales of 231M in 2015 were a result of a combination of factors that are not present in 2017.  The report stated:

“Sales went well for Apple due to a number of advantages that will not repeat including a bigger screen and the addition of China Mobile as a new carrier.”

Deutsche Bank analysts Sherri Scribner, Adrienne Colby, and Jeffrey Rand, claim the current market is not on the same level as it was in 2015.  Competition from China is greater, and the average time customers use the same phone is extending.  On average, customers now own the same phone for 2.7 years.

The predicted lower sales could also be a result of the rumors claiming the price of the phone will be extortionately high.  Rumors now suggest the iPhone 8 will sell for $1200-1400.  If this prediction does prove to be true, the new price will be a huge leap from the $649 iPhone 7.

Could the new price have a hugely negative effect on sales?  Will the iPhone 8 really fail to compete with the iPhone 6 sales, or will Apple continue to dominate today’s phone market?

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