The Epic vs. Apple saga, which began in 2020 when Epic introduced an alternative payment system in Fortnite to bypass Apple’s 30% commission, has forced major changes to App Store policies. A 2021 court ruling, upheld in 2025, mandated that Apple allow developers to link to external payment platforms for in-app purchases, giving users a choice between Apple’s system and third-party options. This antisteering ruling, combined with global regulations like the EU’s Digital Markets Act, aims to loosen Apple’s grip on the $100 billion mobile gaming market, as noted by Time.
Hipkins’ report estimates that game developers could siphon $4.1 billion in revenue from Apple, assuming a hypothetical 10% commission reduction (from 30% to 20%) and that 70% of the top 25 mobile game makers’ income comes from the App Store. AppleInsider calls these assumptions “sketchy,” pointing out their lack of clear justification. For instance, Epic’s Fortnite doesn’t offer discounts on external purchases like V-Bucks, instead providing bonus credits usable across Epic’s platforms, which may not strongly incentivize users to abandon Apple’s system.
Why Users Might Stick with Apple
Apple’s in-app purchase system is a key reason for its App Store success, generating $27 billion in revenue in 2023, with in-app purchases accounting for roughly half. Its seamless, secure process—double-tap to pay with Face ID or Touch ID—makes buying in-app currency or content effortless. In contrast, external payment systems often require users to leave the app, log into a website, and enter payment details, a clunky process that may deter casual users. A Morgan Stanley survey found that fewer than 30% of iPhone owners would likely buy apps directly from developers’ websites, and only if priced up to 35% lower.
Posts on X reflect skepticism about the $4 billion figure, with some users arguing that Apple’s ecosystem offers unmatched convenience and security, making it unlikely for most to switch. Developers like Tencent or Epic may benefit from directing users to external stores, but the hassle could keep many customers within Apple’s ecosystem. For instance, Spotify and Amazon have already adopted third-party payment options in the EU, but widespread user adoption remains uncertain.
Apple’s Response and Regulatory Pressure
Apple has faced intense scrutiny for its App Store practices. In 2024, it introduced a 27% commission on external payments to comply with the 2021 ruling, a move Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers called a “gross miscalculation” and a willful violation. The court banned this fee and “scare screens” that deterred users from external purchases, with Apple now facing potential fines and even criminal contempt charges. Apple has appealed the ruling, arguing that its commission reflects the value of its platform, which serves 650 million weekly visitors and facilitates 747 million downloads weekly.
Globally, the EU’s Digital Markets Act, effective since 2023, mandates similar reforms, with Apple fined $570 million for noncompliance. The App Store Freedom Act in the U.S. could further push for alternative app stores, though Morgan Stanley estimates even a total loss of EU App Store revenue would only cut Apple’s total revenue by 1%. Apple’s diversified portfolio—$124.3 billion in Q1 2025 revenue, including strong hardware and services like Apple Music—helps cushion the blow.
What It Means for Users and Developers
For users, the ruling means more choice in how to pay for in-app content, potentially leading to lower prices if developers pass on savings from avoiding Apple’s fees. However, the convenience of Apple’s system, tied to its 2.35 billion active devices, may keep users loyal. Developers, especially major players like Epic, gain flexibility to bypass Apple’s commissions, but smaller developers may stick with Apple’s platform for its security and reach, as noted in AppleInsider forums.
The $4 billion estimate assumes a dramatic shift in user behavior, which AppleInsider deems unlikely due to the “flimsy scaffolding” of Hipkins’ calculations. For example, Fortnite’s return to the U.S. App Store in 2025, after Epic’s compliance with Apple’s developer terms via a subsidiary, shows that even Epic relies on Apple’s platform to reach iOS users.
Looking Ahead
Apple’s App Store remains a cornerstone of its $1.29 trillion brand value, as reported by Kantar in 2025. While the Epic ruling and global regulations challenge its revenue model, analysts like those at Counterpoint predict Apple’s Services, including the App Store, will hit $100 billion annually by 2025, driven by its 2 billion active users. Apple may adapt by rethinking commissions or boosting services like Apple One to offset losses, but a $4 billion hit seems overstated given user preference for convenience.
As WWDC 2025 approaches, where iOS 26 and new AI features are expected, Apple is likely to double down on its ecosystem’s value to retain users and developers. For now, the App Store’s future hinges on balancing regulatory compliance with its lucrative, user-friendly model.
