Following a decision by the International Trade Commission (ITC), Apple is required to halt the sale of its latest Apple Watch models in the United States. Despite this, a recent analysis from J.P. Morgan suggests that the ban will only marginally affect the company’s revenue.
The Apple Watch Series 9 and Apple Watch Ultra 2, the models subject to the ban, will not be imported into the U.S. after December 25, 2023, if the prohibition is upheld. However, J.P. Morgan analysts estimate that this will only result in a $5 billion loss in sales, representing a mere 1% of Apple’s total annual sales.
The impact of the import ban is limited geographically to the United States, and Apple’s global sales network mitigates the overall effect. Additionally, older models of the Apple Watch will remain available for sale through third-party retailers, offering alternatives to consumers.
According to a J.P. Morgan analyst note, the duration of the ban and Apple’s success in directing U.S. consumers towards older models will be key factors determining the actual impact of the ban.
It is anticipated that customers will easily transition to the original Apple Watch Ultra, given the minor differences between models. However, it may be more challenging to shift customers to older series models.
This analysis is grounded in data from IDC, which estimates Apple Watch shipments at 43.9 million units per year with an average selling price (ASP) of $466, amounting to approximately $20 billion in annual revenue.
The analyst note assumes that new models account for 80% of shipments and that roughly 30% of global smartwatch sales occur in the U.S., leading to the estimated $5 billion annual impact.
In response to the ruling, Apple plans to appeal and has requested intervention from the Biden administration as part of the commission’s review process before the December deadline.
The company is also working on a software update for the Apple Watch that might address the issues leading to the ban.
However, Masimo, the patent holder involved, believes that only a hardware change can prevent the ban from being enforced.
